AGP Executive Report

Ecuador–India Trade Talks: Ecuador is in talks with India to sell Ecuadorian crude oil, copper and other critical minerals, while also exploring Indian purchases of medical products from HLL Lifecare. Agri Supply & Logistics: Organic banana supply stays steady into Q4 as Mexico rainfall helps growers, but Ecuador faces higher sea freight costs and longer planning needs. Security & Human Impact: Ecuador recorded a record 430 homicides of children and adolescents in Jan–Aug 2026, with Guayas driving nearly half the total. Energy & Infrastructure: NB Power’s 20-year plan argues nuclear is the best low-carbon replacement as coal phases out, aiming to protect rate-payers. Mining & Environment Advocacy: A Canadian investor-protection teach-in highlights how Investor-State Dispute Settlement can limit climate and Indigenous sovereignty, with Ecuador’s water cabildo among speakers. Shrimp Industry Pressure: A U.S. senator proposes phased tariff hikes on Ecuadorian shrimp, targeting up to 40% by 2029. Aquaculture Deal: Ecuadorian shrimp-farming firm Omarsa buys Nueva Pescanova’s French refrigerated products division, aiming to expand in Europe. Climate Risk for Ecuador: Fires in Azuay have burned over 1,700 hectares this year as dry vegetation and wind keep risk high.

Ecuador-India Energy Talks: Ecuador’s ambassador Buchelli said Quito is in talks with India for the sale of crude oil and critical minerals, including copper—another push to monetize resources and deepen trade ties. Shrimp Trade Pressure: U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith introduced the Ecuador Shrimp Tariff Act, proposing phased duties up to 40% by 2029, plus a per-kilo fee for inspections—aimed at protecting Gulf shrimpers. Aquaculture & Supply Chains: Chinese feed giant Haid is expanding fast, including facilities in Ecuador, as global aquafeed demand grows and competition intensifies. M&A in Seafood: Ecuadorian shrimp-farming firm Omarsa bought Nueva Pescanova’s French refrigerated products division, signaling continued consolidation in chilled seafood. Power & Hydropower: Weekend rains boosted generation at Coca Codo and raised Azuay’s Mazar reservoir, easing Ecuador’s energy deficit and reducing the need for some restrictions. Local Health Costs: Cuenca dialysis patients demanded payment for private providers owed over $4M, warning treatment continuity is at risk. Azuay Wildfires: Fires have burned 1,700+ hectares across Azuay, with dry vegetation and wind keeping risk high. Cocoa Volatility: Cocoa prices remain volatile as climate change threatens yields, raising costs for chocolate manufacturers and complicating planning. Construction Labor Policy: Israel will stop private recruitment of Sri Lankan and Indian workers for construction from Jan. 1, 2027, while listing approved countries that include Ecuador.

Energy & Hydropower: Weekend rains boosted generation at Ecuador’s Coca Codo Sinclair and raised the Mazar reservoir by over a meter, helping authorities idle plants and resume output Monday amid a still-tight national power balance. Health & Public Services: In Cuenca, kidney dialysis patients and private providers protested unpaid state reimbursements, warning that delayed payments could disrupt lifesaving treatment. Agriculture & Risk Management: Azuay’s wildfire toll topped 1,700 hectares, with Cuenca hardest hit, as dry vegetation and wind keep agricultural burns dangerous even when rain appears. Trade & Industry: A U.S. senator introduced a bill to raise tariffs on Ecuadorian shrimp imports, arguing subsidized shipments are pressuring Gulf shrimpers and processors. Aquaculture Supply Chain: Ecuador’s Omarsa bought Nueva Pescanova’s French refrigerated seafood division, signaling continued consolidation in chilled shrimp markets. Global Business Signals: Gran Tierra announced Azerbaijan ratified its onshore exploration deal, while Chinese feed giant Haid keeps expanding internationally, including into Ecuador.

Shrimp Trade Clash: U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith introduced the “Ecuador Shrimp Tariff Act,” aiming to curb Ecuador’s growing share of U.S. shrimp imports and protect Gulf producers, with phased duties that could reach 40% by Jan. 1, 2029. Mining & Rights in Ecuador: A new documentary, “When Waterfalls Die,” spotlights the Shuar Arutam fight against open-pit copper mining in Ecuador’s Amazon, raising fresh questions about the country’s rights-of-nature framework. Oil Investment Signal: Ecuador announced a new oil auction for end of 2026, as the country courts investors while Indigenous groups warn Amazon expansion isn’t viable. Energy Reliability: Power disconnections were extended to 72 hours for large companies as hydro plant water levels drop, underscoring ongoing pressure on Ecuador’s industrial operations. Logistics & Connectivity: Quito expands North American connectivity with new Air Canada direct flights, a boost for travel and business links. Culture & Local Industry: Ecuadorian chocolatier Inkakaw is gaining traction abroad, showing how Ecuador’s food brands keep finding new markets.

Energy Crunch: Ecuador extended power disconnections again—now up to 72 hours—for large companies as low water at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair squeezes generation, with 9,089 medium firms also facing 48-hour cuts next week. Oil & Mining Tensions: Ecuador announced a December 2026 tender for remote Amazon oil blocks, despite Indigenous nations rejecting the planned Ronda Suroriente and Ronda Subandina over legal, environmental, and operational risks. Trade & Industry Pressure: A U.S. bill would raise tariffs on Ecuador shrimp to protect wild-caught Gulf producers as Ecuador remains a major supplier to the U.S. market. Logistics & Safety: Ecuadorian TV reporter and cameraman were struck by a pickup truck while covering a landslide in Monterrey, Mexico, escaping with minor injuries. Climate Risk: A report warns El Niño could add thousands of heat deaths across Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela, with survival tied to housing and cooling affordability. Food & Culture: Ecuadorian cacao continues to travel—from a Minnesota chocolatier importing Hacienda San Jose products to new research tracing cacao’s ancient spread.

Oil & Gas: Ecuador says it will tender remote Amazon oil blocks in December 2026, aiming for about $1B in investment, even as seven Indigenous nations reject the plan and warn of legal, operational, and environmental risks. Electricity Crunch: Ecuador extended industrial power disconnections again—up to 72 hours for large companies and 48 hours for thousands of medium firms—citing low water at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair. Mining & Amazon Rights: A new documentary, “When Waterfalls Die,” spotlights the Shuar Arutam fight against open-pit copper mining tied to a Canadian company’s extraction rights in Ecuador’s Amazon. Trade & Tariffs: A US bill targets Ecuadorian shrimp imports, arguing Ecuador’s supply is pressuring Gulf producers and calling for higher phased tariffs plus stronger labeling and inspection funding. Aviation/Logistics: Uruguay ranked high for international passengers per inhabitant, with Carrasco’s airport logistics hub highlighted for pharma connectivity across the region. Maritime/Crime Compliance: A regional push to shift anti-crime policy toward tracing assets and dismantling financial networks is gaining momentum, with Ecuador–Colombia–Peru cash-control operations cited. Business/Infrastructure: Quito expands North American connectivity with new Direct Air Canada flights. Safety & Media: An Ecuadorian TV reporter and cameraman were hit by a vehicle while covering a landslide in Mexico, escaping with minor injuries.

Amazon Mining Fight: Ecuador-linked documentary “When Waterfalls Die” spotlights the Shuar Arutam community’s pushback against open-pit copper mining plans in the Ecuadorian Amazon, framing it as a clash with rights of nature and Indigenous territory. Energy Crunch: Ecuador extended electricity disconnections again—up to 72 hours for large companies and 48 hours for thousands of medium firms—citing low water at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair, while business groups question who bears the burden. Oil & Gas Tender: Ecuador announced a December 2026 tender for remote Amazon oil blocks, despite Indigenous nations rejecting the proposed rounds and warning of legal, environmental, and financial risks. Trade & Tariffs: U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith introduced the “Ecuador Shrimp Tariff Act” to protect wild-caught Gulf shrimpers from Ecuador’s growing seafood imports. Governance & Diplomacy: Ecuador reaffirmed support at the UN for Morocco’s Western Sahara autonomy plan, calling it the only credible path forward. Safety on the Job: An Ecuadorian TV reporter and cameraman were hit by a vehicle while covering a landslide in Monterrey, Mexico, escaping with minor injuries.

Energy Crisis: Ecuador extended power disconnections again, pushing large companies to 72 hours after low water at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair, with 9,089 medium firms facing 48-hour cuts next week—sparking complaints from industry leaders about fairness. Oil & Indigenous Rights: Ecuador announced a December 2026 tender for remote Amazon oil blocks, but seven Indigenous nations rejected the plan, warning of legal, operational, and environmental risks and uncertainty over whether the rounds will proceed. Trade & Agriculture: A new U.S. bill, the Ecuador Shrimp Tariff Act, targets rising Ecuador shrimp imports that lawmakers say are harming American wild-caught shrimpers, proposing phased tariff increases and stronger origin labeling. Logistics & Connectivity: Quito is set to expand North American connectivity with new direct Air Canada flights. Industry & Finance: A regional push against organized crime finances highlights Guatemala’s new anti-money-laundering law, shifting focus from kingpin arrests to tracing assets—an approach linked to Ecuador–Colombia–Peru cash-control efforts. Safety in Media: Ecuadorian TV reporter Alma de la Rosa Flores and cameraman Cristo Morales were hit by a pickup truck while covering a landslide in Monterrey, Mexico, ending a live broadcast but leaving them with minor injuries.

Energy Crisis: Ecuador’s Energy Ministry extended corporate power disconnections again, moving large-company cuts from 48 to 72 hours as water levels at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair stay low, while 9,089 medium firms face 48-hour outages next week. Maritime & Security: Human Rights Watch says U.S. forces intercepted and destroyed eight Ecuadorian fishing vessels in late August–mid September, detaining over 140 crew and alleging abuse, urging both governments to disclose the legal basis and investigate. Trade & Compliance: Ecuadorian lawyers report rising scrutiny of supply chains and third parties after the U.S. designated Los Tiguerones as a foreign terrorist organization, with impacts flagged for shrimp farming, agribusiness, ports and maritime services. EV Industry: Ecuador’s EV momentum keeps climbing, with reporting citing BEV growth to over 10% and PHEVs pushing the market close to 20%. Legislation: A U.S. bill would raise tariffs on Ecuador shrimp imports, phasing up to 40% by 2029 and funding inspections. Infrastructure & Logistics: Quito announced expanded North American connectivity with new Air Canada direct flights.

Maritime Security Near Ecuador: Human Rights Watch says U.S. forces intercepted and destroyed eight Ecuadorian fishing vessels (Aug. 28–Sept. 16), detaining 140+ crew and alleging abuse, while noting neither side has publicly shown evidence linking individual crew to crimes. Oil & Gas / Indigenous Opposition: Ecuador’s ENAEP 2026 summit comes as Indigenous nations reject planned 2026 Amazon oil auctions (Ronda Suroriente and Ronda Subandina), warning they will keep protesting projects overlapping their territories. Energy Costs & Logistics: A potential U.S. diesel export ban is flagged as a major risk for global freight, food production, and machinery costs—diesel is described as a key fuel for trucks, ships, tractors, and generators. Agribusiness & Trade: A U.S. senator introduces an “Ecuador Shrimp Tariff Act” to raise duties on Ecuadorian shrimp imports, reaching 40% by 2029, plus funding for inspections and origin labeling. EV Market Signal for Ecuador: A report highlights Ecuador’s rapid EV growth, citing BEV share above 10% and near 20% when PHEVs are included. Mining & Processing: Dynacor appoints Jonathan Hill as COO, with the company operating gold projects in Peru and Ecuador and expanding across South America and Africa. Aviation / Tourism: Quito adds new direct Air Canada flights, boosting North American access to Ecuador’s capital. Coffee Sector Spotlight: FAO marks International Coffee Day, emphasizing sustainable, climate-smart production and support for smallholder farmers.

Stablecoin Payments in LatAm Commerce: Exodus launched “Exodus Checkout” with DIRECTV’s DGO, letting eligible customers pay subscriptions with dollar stablecoins, starting in Argentina and expanding to Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Uruguay—and Ecuador. Energy Crunch in Ecuador: The government extended electricity disconnections for large consumers from 24 to 48 hours a week, citing worsening conditions at major hydro plants as El Niño strains generation. Amazon Oil vs Indigenous Rights: At ENAEP 2026, Ecuador’s oil summit faced renewed pushback: seven Indigenous nations issued a joint declaration rejecting planned 2026 Amazon auctions (Ronda Suroriente and Ronda Subandina) over territory impacts. Quito Boosts Air Links: Quito announced new direct Air Canada flights to strengthen North American connectivity and tourism access to the capital. El Niño Hits Food and Fishing: UNICEF warned 25.8M children across Latin America face high El Niño rainfall risks, while AFP reported tuna and other fish migrating offshore, leaving Ecuador’s Pacific fishers with emptier nets. Critical Minerals Security Pact: The Shield of the Americas added critical mineral supply chains to its economic pillar, aiming for trusted sourcing and investment-screening mechanisms.

El Niño Disruption Watch: New research warns a “super” El Niño could intensify into 2027, raising flooding risk in Peru, Ecuador and Brazil while drought hits elsewhere—threatening supply chains, commodity output and infrastructure. Fisheries Pressure in Ecuador: Ocean warming linked to El Niño is emptying nets along Latin America’s Pacific coast, with tuna and other key species moving offshore, leaving Ecuador’s small ports with idle boats and weak catches. Amazon Oil vs Indigenous Rights: At Quito’s ENAEP 2026, Ecuador’s oil push faces fresh backlash as seven Indigenous nations reject planned 2026 Amazon auctions, citing legal, environmental and operational risks and warning investors off extraction in their territories. Shrimp Supply Shift: Ecuador’s shrimp growth continues as technification ramps up, but the broader region faces supply volatility tied to climate and market dynamics. U.S.-Ecuador Security Link: Reports say U.S. troops are expanding operations in Ecuador’s drug war, while U.S. officials signal more options in anti-cartel campaigns across the region. Tourism & Venues: Ecuador gets a nod via Ecuador’s Metropolitan Touring named among nominees for a global sustainable travel award category, highlighting regional hospitality visibility.

Oil & Indigenous Rights: Ecuador’s oil summit in Quito comes as Amazon auction plans stall, with seven Indigenous nations warning investors that overlapping blocks for the 2026 “Ronda” are legally, operationally, and environmentally risky and urging companies to stop pursuing extraction. Mining Finance: Atico Mining secured a US$95m Trafigura project finance facility plus a US$16.4m convertible debenture private placement to fund Ecuador’s La Plata gold-copper project construction. Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. exempted specialty drugs and key ingredients from ad valorem tariffs for Ecuador and other markets, a move that could affect Ecuador’s pharma supply chains and import costs. Climate & Coastal Risk: A “Kelvin wave” tied to El Niño is already lifting seas off Ecuador and is expected to raise coastal water levels for months, adding pressure to flood and erosion planning. Agriculture & Cocoa: Mars says its cocoa sourcing reached 98% of needs via its responsible program in 2025, and notes a climate-smart agriculture push that includes Ecuador and Peru. Regional Diplomacy: Antigua and Barbuda backed former Ecuadorian foreign minister María Fernanda Espinosa for UN secretary-general, breaking CARICOM consensus and reshaping the race.

Mining & Finance: Atico Mining secured a US$95m project finance facility from Trafigura plus a US$16.4m convertible debenture for Ecuador’s La Plata gold-and-copper project, aiming to fund pre-construction and move toward development. Cold-Chain Logistics: Great White Fleet announced a Pan-American and European expansion with a new vessel, 2,000 refrigerated containers, and a direct Guayaquil-to-U.S./Europe service to boost cold-chain capacity for Q4 2026. Pharma Trade: The U.S. waived 100% ad valorem tariffs on select specialty drugs and ingredients from Ecuador and 19 other markets, covering areas like orphan drugs, cell and gene therapies, and medical countermeasures. Environment & Marine Impact: A study found plastic pollution off Ecuador reaching nearly 4,000 meters deep in the Pacific, with fishing and tourism/recreation items among the main sources. Energy & Water Stress: Ecuador’s Mazar reservoir saw temporary relief from weekend rain, but CELEC warned the downward trend may resume as it adjusts generation amid ongoing constraints at Coca Codo Sinclair. Climate Watch: Scientists warn of a “super” El Niño, with potential global weather impacts that could spill into Ecuador’s agriculture and water planning. UN Diplomacy: The Security Council held its fourth straw poll to narrow candidates to replace UN chief Guterres, with Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan reported as leading.

UN Diplomacy: The UN Security Council held its 4th closed-door straw poll for the next secretary-general, leaving seven candidates in the race, including Ecuador’s Ivonne A-Baki and Maria Fernanda Espinosa. Environment & Industry: A new study reports plastic pollution off Ecuador reaching nearly 4,000 meters deep in the Pacific, with bags, fishing nets and bottles found far below the surface—an issue tied to coastal waste and fishing activity. Amazon Tech for Conservation: The Achuar community of Sharamentsa (Sharamentsa Viva) is using cameras, training and ancestral knowledge to monitor forest biodiversity and preserve culture in Ecuador’s Amazon. Mining Finance: Atico Mining secured a US$95m project finance facility plus a US$16.4m convertible debenture placement to advance its La Plata gold and copper project in Ecuador. Energy & Water: CELEC says weekend rain temporarily boosted the Mazar reservoir, but water levels are expected to keep falling as Ecuador adjusts generation amid the electricity crisis. Trade & Pharma: The US exempted select speciality drugs and ingredients (including Ecuador) from 100% tariffs, a move that could reshape regional pharma supply planning.

Pharma Trade: The US Commerce Department published a Federal Register list exempting select speciality medicines and related ingredients from the new 100% tariff framework, with India and 19 other jurisdictions including Ecuador covered; the zero-duty categories target rare-disease drugs, fertility treatments, cell and gene therapies, antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), and certain veterinary products. Aviation & Infrastructure: Airports Council International says Latin America and the Caribbean need about US$178B over 30 years to nearly double passenger capacity by 2045, as connectivity still lags post-pandemic. Ecuador Climate Readiness: Cuenca’s El Niño planning is getting attention for preparing for both floods and drought at once, reflecting how local geography can flip conditions within the same canton. Skilled Migration: Australia updated skilled visa processing priorities, placing construction, healthcare, teaching, agriculture, aquaculture, fishing, and resources at the top tier. Security & Justice: Colombia extradited a rebel commander nicknamed “Araña” to the US, underscoring cross-border pressure around cocaine corridors near Ecuador.